MLB Early Season Recap and Predictions

To note, only the Angels and the Rockies currently have a projected 0% chance to win the division AND less than 1% to make the playoffs. Only two teams in the AL have a .600 winning % after two weeks while the NL has 5 such teams.

AL East Winner - New York Yankees

The Yankees are projected to win 96 games, have a 79.8% of winning the division, and 96.7% of making the postseason. Compound this with the fact that the other teams in the division have started the season sucking ass, and how well the Yankees pitching has been and this won’t be much of a division race. The Yanks have benefited to some outstanding pitching to start the year, which was not expected at all. And this good start certainly bodes well considering their rotation will presumably get significantly better when Cole, Rodon and Schmidt come back later this year. But I see this team struggling after this quick start. The Yankees just lost two of three at home to the A’s (more on them later) and it was their offense that let them down. I fear that if Aaron Judge does not carry this team offensively this offense will be hard to watch sometimes. The World Baseball Classic is known to throw off hitters’ timing because of the lack of live AB’s hitters get. Stanton and Rice have been pleasant surprises to start the season but, as a team they are batting .204 (27th), they also rank in the bottom third of the league in OPS .655 (22nd), they have also been striking out a lot as a team, also ranking in the bottom third of baseball. If the offensive woes continue, and another team in the division can get hot, it will be a tough season playing catch up. With that being said, the Yankees are in first place at 8-4, no other team is above .500. The Red Sox have started the season off terribly. They cannot hit, or seem to score with any kind of consistently, and their pitching has not been great to start the season. Unless this offense can outperform expectations and the studs on the pitching staff can carry them then maybe they can sniff a wild card spot. The Orioles have done what they needed to to begin this season. They will be getting Jackson Holliday back today April 10th and Heston Kjerstad on April 11th to help at the plate. To note, Pete Alonso has started the season slow, slugging .292 and an OPS of .556. As long as they can stay healthy I expect the Orioles to keep themselves in middle of the wild card race. The Rays pitching has been piss poor, except Drew Rasmussen 10 IP, 2 ER, 10 SO’s to 1 BB, losing both starts. This is a last place team in the AL East. Toronto has yet again started the season slow and it has been quite ugly, last year Toronto was under .500 after April only to get hot and take first place in the AL East by mid July. Toronto was one of the best Teams from May through the end of the season culminating with a loss in the World Series. I don’t have faith that it will pan out the same way this year, too much has to go right for too long. In fact, I believe this team will shop some of their veteran players like, George Springer, come the trade deadline.

AL Central Winner - Cleveland Guardians

Just give the division to the Guards. They are too well coached, do all the little things correctly and the other teams in the division pose less of a threat than those of the AL East. The Tigers only have a -3 run differential so there is no need to hit the panic button on the season but if they can’t find a way to start winning games soon, they will be digging themselves out of quite a tough hole for a wildcard spot. The Royals are a young and exciting team, who may arrive a touch earlier than expected but they are still far from pushing the Guardians (or the Tigers for that matter). Expect the Royals to stay relevant up to the All Star Game but I don’t foresee August and September being friendly to a young team. Have the Twins outperformed? Have they played as expected? I’m not really sure, I honestly did not know what to think of the Twins to start the season but I’m going to trust my gut here and say they will just be a pain in the ass for teams in playoff contention while not actually competing for a playoff spot themselves. The Twins will finish right around .500. Oh and the White Sox exist.

AL West - Seattle Mariners

By far the most interesting division in the AL, the A’s look like they may make some noise in the division. They just took two of three from the Yankees in New York behind some stellar pitching, and their offense is more than capable of putting enough runs on the board to win games. If the pitching staff can contribute like they did in New York more often they may be able to sneak into the third wild card position. The Mariners are struggling, again, to start the year. Last year they started the season 4-8 only to get hot and win the division. This year it is more of the same, sluggish offense combined with elite pitching. The Mariners are my favorite to win the AL West again. The cheating Astros will find a way to stay relevant and may even squeek out another division crown. Fuck them. I like the Rangers, I don’t know much about them but I like them. CBS Sports have them listed as the second favorite to win the division, behind the Mariners, with a 31% chance of winning the division and a 59% chance of making the playoffs. My only pause for concern is their health. Jordan Montgomery is projected to come back July 1st, and Eovaldi is coming off a season ending injury last year. Jacob deGrom, while healthy is still one of the top starters in the league, has always struggled to remain healthy and available on a consistent basis. If this team can remain healthy, they can definitely make another World Series run, big if though. Oh and the Angels also exist.

AL Wild Card - Toronto Blue Jays, Detroit Tigers, Texas Rangers

NL East - Atlanta Braves

As of this writing the Mets are still favored to win the division, though not by much. Both the Braves and the Mets are projected to win 86 games and currently as it stands the Mets have a 33.9% of winning the division to 33.1% for the Bravos. I’m counting on the Braves to rebound from a tumultuous season a year ago. There’s something about the Mets, probably cause they’re the Mets, I can’t trust. I also have trust issues when it comes to Philly. While the play of Justin Crawford has been a pleasant surprise, I worry about some of their veteran players. Bryce Harper may be in the beginning of of a decline, JT isn’t the same player he was just a couple years ago and Trea Turner is too much of a liability defensively. There is just too many holes that in order for them to push Atlanta and New York a lot needs to go right. Philly fans should still sleep easy as they should still be a lock for one of the three wildcard slots in the NL. The Marlins are worth mentioning solely for the hot start they were able to get off to. Every pitcher to start a game for Miami this year has a sub 2.00 ERA with SP Chris Paddack being the highest at 1.73. But this team is not a serious contender. The offense will get worse, the pitching will also get worse. Currently they are projected to have a 15% chance of making the playoffs and even that feels generous. The Nationals currently have a 0% chance of winning the division and a mere 3.3% chance of making the playoffs (which also feels too high)

NL Central - Milwaukee Brewers

One of the easier divisions to predict. The Brewers seem to already have the division in hand. They are clearly the most talented team in the division, couple that with their blazing hot start and it’s safe to pencil them in only two weeks into the season. Although the division is already wrapped up, this will be one of the more interesting divisions in baseball. The Pirates appear to be one of the darlings this spring with owner Bob Nutting finally reaching down and discovering his own nuts by signing their young talent to long term deals. But they have some major issues to seriously compete, and if they are lucky they could be this years version of the Reds. Speaking of the Reds, this team should improve upon their success last year. They were able to add veterans Eugenio Suarez and Nathaniel Lowe this off season to help round out the offense and add some leadership to a young clubhouse. The offense has pop to score enough runs but there is a lot of swing and miss, and the pitching is too inconsistent for me to fully get behind the Reds. I expect the Cubs and the Reds to be fighting for one of the last wild card spots. If I had to compare the two teams I see the Cubs being the more consistent between the two. As I see the Cubs with a higher floor but lower ceiling. And much like the Reds, it’s their pitching that I cannot trust. The Cardinals are rebuilding, nothing much else to say here.

NL West - Los Angeles Dodgers

The most lopsided division in all of sports. The Dodgers are projected to run away with the division. And for good reason, they are the reigning World Series champions and only got better this past offseason. Let’s hope the Padres who currently have a 4.4% chance of winning the division can challenge the Dodgers and make it an interesting race. The Diamondbacks, Giants and Rockies all have a projected 0% chance of winning the division. The Giants do have however, a 30.3% chance of making the postseason, while the Diamondbacks have a 15.4% chance of making the postseason. There just isn’t enough wildcard spots to go around

NL Wild Card - NY Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres

All stats and projections were taken from CBS Sports.